Probability

The Bayesian Probability Puzzle Solution | Quanta Magazine
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The Bayesian Probability Puzzle Solution | Quanta Magazine

When making hard decisions, do you go with your gut or try to calculate the risks? In many cases going with your gut is fine, but the answers to our February puzzle problems show how explicit probabilistic thinking can outperform intuitive estimates. They also highlight the differences between situations where an intuitive approach succeeds and…